TAIPEI, TAIWAN — China has urged Japan to maintain a “healthy and stable” relationship with Beijing after former Japanese Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba won the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race Friday.
Ishiba is set to become Japan’s next prime minister when Japanese lawmakers convene on October 1.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters Friday that the “sustained, sound and steady” development of China-Japan relations is in both countries’ interests, characterizing the path as “the only right choice.”
China, he said, hopes Japan will “have an objective and right perception of China, take an active and rational China policy, take concrete efforts to comprehensively advance the strategic relationship of mutual benefit, and work with China to promote the sustained, sound and steady development” of bilateral relations.
Beijing’s remarks come amid rising tension between China and Japan. China has increased the frequency of its military activities in waters and airspace near Japan in recent weeks, sailing its aircraft carrier Liaoning through the “contiguous zone” near Japan’s westernmost island of Yonaguni on September 18 and conducting large-scale military exercises near the Sea of Japan.
Meanwhile, a Japanese battleship sailed through the Taiwan Strait for the first time Wednesday, prompting Beijing to reiterate its strong opposition to such “freedom of navigation” operations.
Japan also expressed concern after China test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean for the first time in 40 years Wednesday. The Japanese government said Beijing did not notify it before the missile test and described China’s increasing military activity in the region as “a serious concern.”
Analysts say the Chinese Foreign Ministry statement shows Beijing remains cautious about Ishiba’s stance on relations with China.
“Beijing is very cautious and concerned about Ishiba’s stance because he has been very assertive and hardline about Japan’s security policy,” Kyoko Hatakeyama, an international relations professor at the University of Niigata Prefecture, said in a phone interview with VOA.
Before Friday’s leadership election, Ishiba proposed the creation of an “Asian NATO,” which he said could pave the way for a nuclear-sharing arrangement among like-minded countries or a return of U.S. nuclear tactical weapons to the Indo-Pacific region.
During a live debate held by Japan’s Fuji News Network on September 22, Ishiba said it is time to allow Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to fire warning shots at foreign forces intruding Japan’s territorial airspaces and waters.
Hatakeyama said Ishiba would likely continue to deepen Japan’s defense and security relationship with like-minded democracies, including the United States, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines.
Unlike outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, she said, Ishiba wants Japan to have more autonomy in shaping its security policies.
“He thinks it’s not good for Japan to follow Washington’s lead and he believes Japan should become more independent in working with other like-minded countries in the region,” Hatakeyama told VOA by phone.
Some Chinese analysts say Beijing should keep an eye on Ishiba’s policies toward China, based on his previous remarks and proposals.
“China needs to stay alert to Ishiba as he reportedly had called for creation of an ‘Asian NATO’ by combining the U.S.-Japan alliance and U.S.-South Korea alliance,” Da Zhigang, director of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at China’s Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, told China’s state-run tabloid Global Times.
Xiang Haoyu, a research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, told Global Times he expects Japan to keep using “the Taiwan question” and its alignment with the U.S. to “contain China.”
While Ishiba will likely uphold Japan’s current defense and security policies, some experts say he may also seek to adjust Tokyo’s overall policies toward China.
“In his recently released book, Ishiba said some members of the Japanese government play up the idea of the China threat and the need for more military without really explaining them to the Japanese people,” Jeffrey Hall, an expert on Japan studies at Kanda University of International Studies.
He said while Ishiba has highlighted the need for Japan to maintain deterrence against China, the incoming Japanese prime minister will try to put less emphasis on threats by China to help Japan avoid “a security dilemma.”
“He has many big ideas about it, but in the next year, he will continue foreign policy as it was under Kishida,” Hall told VOA in a video interview.
While Ishiba may seek to adjust Japan’s policies toward China, Hall said he will also continue Tokyo’s approach of maintaining close relations with Taiwan, as it did under Kishida and deceased former prime minister Shinzo Abe.
“Ishiba’s visit to Taiwan in August was strategically timed because he wanted to show conservatives in Japan that he would stand with Taiwan if he becomes prime minister,” he told VOA, adding that Ishiba will not sacrifice commitment to Taiwan for the sake of friendlier relations with China.
Despite the heightened tension between Japan and China, caused mainly by Beijing’s military actions and the death of a 10-year-old Japanese boy in the Chinese city of Shenzhen, Hatakeyama said Tokyo and Beijing will both try to play a balancing act in managing bilateral relations in the near future.
“China has recently agreed to gradually resume imports of Japanese seafood and Japan’s Cabinet Office didn’t declare the Japanese warship’s passage through the Taiwan Strait, which signals that Tokyo and Beijing both want to prevent bilateral tensions from further escalating,” she told VOA.
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