WASHINGTON — Russian space technologies, if transferred to Pyongyang in compensation for its support of Moscow’s war on Ukraine, could enhance North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities, U.S. experts say.
“The DPRK [North Korea] is already receiving Russian military equipment and training,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters Monday in Seoul. “Now, we have reason to believe that Moscow intends to share advanced space and satellite technology with Pyongyang.”
According to U.S. defense officials, North Korea has deployed an estimated 12,000 troops to Russia, of which roughly 1,000 have already fallen casualty to fighting Ukrainians in Russia’s Kursk region.
For months, top diplomats and defense analysts have said North Korea anticipates Russian technical assistance for nuclear and missile programs in exchange.
Robert Peters, research fellow for nuclear deterrence and missile defense at the Heritage Foundation, suggested that any of Russia’s technological assistance would likely aim to develop Pyongyang’s ICBM program under the guise of non-military satellite programs, as solutions for space launch vehicles can be applied to ballistic missiles.
“It would be politically very challenging for Russia to announce that it is going to help North Korea with its ICBM program,” Peters told VOA’s Korean Service on Tuesday. “Russians are able to have this fig leaf of, ‘Well, we’re just helping North Korea with a satellite program.’ But I don’t think anyone’s fooled by this.”
According to Peters, two areas where North Korea could substantially benefit from Russia’s space program: Accuracy and reliability, both of which are crucial for delivering nuclear warheads effectively.
“Getting the actual warhead package on target is no small task,” he explained. “And the United States and also Russia has, over the past 35 years, figured out a way to get warheads on target in a way that was not possible during the Cold War.”
Peters also said North Korean engineers have struggled with having warheads reliably survive reentry from space to produce yield.
Vann Van Diepen, who served as deputy assistant secretary of state for international security and nonproliferation from 2009 to 2016, told VOA Korean that technologies related to satellite dispensing and maneuvering could enhance North Korea’s ICBM program.
“If space launch vehicle technology or booster technology gets transferred as part of so-called ‘space technology,’ then that potentially could be applicable to probably liquid-propellant ICBMs,” Van Diepen said.
Many satellites are known to use liquid propellants for efficiency and controllability.
Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, also said satellite launch vehicles have components that could be adapted for North Korea’s liquid-fueled ICBMs.
“Probably, that could be used in a liquid-fueled ICBM, giving it a longer range or a greater carrying capacity, so that it could carry more warheads,” Bennett told VOA Korean.
The majority of North Korea’s known ICBMs are believed to use liquid fuels.
Looming threat
Peters said Russia’s assistance could pose a serious threat to the continental United States.
“The only reason for North Korea to build ICBMs is to target the United States, as they don’t need ICBMs to target South Korea or Japan,” he said, adding that it could make East Asian allies question whether Washington, faced with a direct threat, could maintain its regional deterrence commitments.
Even short of direct ICBM technology transfers, Van Diepen said enhanced North Korean satellite technology is detrimental to the U.S. and its allies.
“If Russia helps North Korea make better reconnaissance satellites — [with] higher resolution [imaging], that sort of thing — that improves North Korea’s targeting ability and intelligence capability. And that, of course, is bad for the United States and for the alliance,” Van Diepen said. “So, even without technology transfers that would help North Korea’s ICBM program, it would still be a bad thing and something the United States would oppose.”
In November 2023, North Korea announced it successfully launched a military reconnaissance satellite into orbit after two failed attempts. Seoul believes Russian support likely enabled that success, according to The Associated Press.
Former U.S. defense intelligence officer Bruce Bechtol told VOA Korean that Pyongyang has been working to enhance satellite capabilities in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.
“The North Koreans put up a satellite before into orbit, but they need the specific technology that has intelligence collection on it, and that they would need to get from a benefactor, the Chinese or the Russians,” he said. “It appears that they’re getting it from the Russians, and that’s disturbing.”
China’s stance
China has been walking a fine line between the concern about Russia’s possible transfer of missile technology to North Korea and its ties with Moscow and Pyongyang.
“North Korea and Russia are two independent sovereign states. How to develop bilateral relations is their own business,” Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson at the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said in an email to VOA Korean on Tuesday.
On Monday, North Korea fired what it said was a new hypersonic intermediate-range missile, which flew about 1,100 kilometers before landing in the sea off its east coast. The test launch was conducted two weeks before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump returns to office. Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un three times during his first term, before nuclear talks between the two collapsed.
Bennett and other experts suspect that Russia may well have given North Korea knowledge of materials such as the new carbon fiber, which Pyongyang claims to have used in creating the latest missile.
“They tested a hypersonic missile earlier last year, so they had already gotten some of that technology. But in almost all areas of technology, you kind of walk before you run,” Bennett said. “The likelihood is that the Russian scientists have sat down with North Korean scientists, helping improve the vehicle from what they tested a year ago.”
VOA’s Joon Ho Ahn contributed to this report.
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