Iran was quick to downplay the impact of Israel’s attack on key military sites on its territory on October 26.
But satellite images suggest Israel has degraded Tehran’s air defense and missile-production capabilities, analysts say.
Fabian Hinz of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said Israel had dealt a “significant blow” to Iran’s ability to produce long-range ballistic missiles.
Ability to sustain long-range attacks
On October 1, Iran launched its biggest-ever direct attack on Israel, firing nearly 200 ballistic missiles at its archenemy. Dozens of the missiles, aimed mostly at military sites, penetrated Israel’s formidable air defenses.
Israel’s retaliatory strikes on October 26 were aimed at hindering Iran’s production of solid-propellant ballistic missiles that were used by Tehran in its assault, the “weapons that are of most concern to Israel,” Hinz said.
Solid-propellant missiles require fewer personnel and little time to prepare for launch compared to liquid-propellant missiles, Hinz explains, making them ideal for launching volleys in quick succession.
Israel struck missile-production sites around Tehran, including the Parchin military complex, the Khojir military base, the Shahrud missile site, and a factory in the Shamsabad Industrial Zone.
Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense specialist at the global intelligence company Janes, says the full extent of the damage caused to the facilities is still unclear.
But he adds that Israel likely wanted to prevent Iran from being able to sustain long-range missile exchanges, especially given the numbers it needs to penetrate Israel’s formidable air defenses.
“The Israelis probably don’t know precisely how many ballistic missiles [Iran] has with the requisite range, but have tried to reduce its ability to replenish is stockpile,” Binnie said.
Blinded offensively and defensively?
Israel’s attack was also aimed at weakening Iran’s ability to fend off aerial attacks by targeting its radars and Russian-made S-300 air-defense systems.
There have been unconfirmed reports quoting U.S. and Israeli officials claiming that three S-300 systems were taken out in the Israeli attack.
“The S-300s are Iran’s most capable air-defense capabilities, so targeting them again emphasizes Iran’s inability to defend itself and gives the Israeli Air Force more freedom of operation in the future,” Binnie said.
Satellite images also showed that at least two radar systems — one in the western Ilam Province and another in the southwestern Khuzestan Province — were hit.
The radars are an essential part of Iran’s early warning system, Hinz told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda. Taking them out, he said, would mean Israel had “degraded Iran’s ability to resist any air attack even further, making it more vulnerable.”
Fox News quoted a U.S. defense official as saying that the radars also had an offensive purpose, and have been used by Iran to track ballistic missiles after launch to assess their trajectories and course-correct if necessary.
Binnie said that “would be unusual but might explain how [Iran] has achieved a fairly high level of accuracy with its ballistic missiles — though not good enough to do really significant damage.”
Impact on Iranian retaliation
There are growing numbers of reports that Tehran is considering retaliating against Israel as the extent of the damage caused by the October 26 attack becomes clearer.
Given that Iran has suffered damage to both its offensive and defensive capabilities, it is unclear if it can launch another large-scale attack on Israel, experts say.
Binnie said the United States’ deployment to Israel of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), an advanced anti-missile system, will further “swing the balance in [Israel’s] favor.”
Media reports citing Israeli sources say that Iran is preparing to launch an aerial attack on Israel using Tehran-backed Shi’ite militant groups in Iraq. That would suggest the Islamic republic hopes its proxies will absorb the brunt of a potential Israeli response.
Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda contributed to this report.
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