Taipei, Taiwan — Taiwan President Lai Ching-te will kick off on Saturday a week-long overseas trip to visit the island’s three diplomatic allies in the Pacific region, marking his first diplomatic tour since taking office in May.
The visit will include stops in the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau, as well as stopovers in U.S. territories such as Hawaii and Guam. It comes as China continues to expand its influence in the Pacific region. Analysts say the trip can help consolidate Taiwan’s diplomatic ties with the three Pacific Island countries.
“The Pacific Islands region has been the site of intense geopolitical competition in recent years and we have seen three of Taiwan’s original diplomatic partners [in the region, including Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Nauru,] switching recognition to China since 2019,” said Mihai Sora, director of the Pacific Islands program at Lowy Institute in Australia.
He said as China continues to use “a range of coercive tactics and incentives” to pressure Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies in the Pacific to switch recognition to Beijing, Lai’s trip will play an important role in delivering Taiwan’s commitments to these three countries.
“As the number of countries recognizing Taiwan becomes fewer, each diplomatic partner becomes more important for Taiwan,” Sora told VOA in a video interview.
Palauan President Surangel Whipps Jr., who was re-elected earlier this month, said the Chinese government had tried to use tourism to incentivize him to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
“The Chinese ambassador to Cambodia once called me to say that China had more tourists than Taiwan so I should denounce Taiwan and go with China because that would get me millions of tourists and the Chinese would also build new hotels that Palau needs,” Whipps Jr. told VOA during an interview in Palau last month.
China views Taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory that must one day be reunited with mainland China. Beijing also opposes any form of official interaction between Taiwan and other countries.
In response to Lai’s upcoming trip, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said if Lai attempts to use the trip to provoke China it “will lead nowhere.”
“We urge relevant countries to see clearly the trend of history at an early date, and make the right decision that truly serves their fundamental and long-term interests,” Lin Jian said during a regular press conference on November 22.
Reuters news agency reported on Wednesday that China may launch a new round of military drills near Taiwan as a response to Lai’s Pacific tour, citing unnamed Taiwanese and regional security officials.
In response to the report, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung on Thursday urged China not to “overreact” to Lai’s trip to the Pacific. On the same day, Taiwan’s military held an early morning air defense drill to test its response and engagement procedures.
Focus on maritime security and public health
Lai will be accompanied by key cabinet members overseeing maritime affairs and public health during the trip.
Experts say since maritime surveillance, maritime domain awareness, and public health are all critical issues for Pacific Island nations, the makeup of Lai’s delegation suggests Taiwan has identified these issues as areas where Taiwan can contribute.
“Maritime domain security is such an important topic for Palau and Marshall Islands, as Palau’s president Surangel Whipps Jr. talked about incursions into Palau’s territorial waters by Chinese research vessels on several occasions, and it seems that Taiwan thinks it can play a role [in that space,]” said Henryk Szadziewski, an expert on Pacific affairs at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.
In addition to maritime security and health, Szadziewski says climate financing and economic livelihoods are also areas in which Taiwan can support its Pacific allies. “The Marshall Islands and Tuvalu are significantly under threat from the climate crisis and I think Taiwan can help with the climate financing that the region sorely needs,” he told VOA by phone.
Palau and Marshall Islands both receive significant economic support from the U.S. under the Compacts of Free Association, or COFA. Australia is also assisting Tuvalu in climate adaptation through the Falepili Union treaty, which would allow Tuvalu citizens to live in Australia under a special visa.
Under COFA, the U.S. provides economic aid worth billions of dollars, while Palau, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia give the U.S. exclusive military access to their land, water, and airspace, as well as the right to deny China access to their ports and territorial waters.
Since Palau and the Marshall Islands are both part of the Second Island Chain, which plays a key role in connecting the U.S. forces in Hawaii and Guam, analysts say ensuring these countries have strong defense and security relationships with Washington and Taiwan is strategically important to the U.S.
Sora in Australia said since these agreements make Washington and Canberra the main development partners for Taiwan’s three Pacific allies, it creates “a permissive environment” that allows Taiwan to contribute to larger development projects in those countries.
“Taiwan can provide targeted, effective, and useful assistance but it’s not relied upon as the main development partner. It’s very important that the larger countries are also involved in those countries,” he told VOA.
However, other experts say Taiwan should still avoid purely counting on support from the U.S. and Australia to maintain ties with Pacific allies.
“The willingness for the U.S. and Australia to burden share in these Pacific countries certainly benefits Taiwan now, but Taiwan needs to develop a strategy if both governments opt to focus their attention elsewhere,” Timothy Rich, a political scientist at Western Kentucky University, told VOA in a written response.
Since China has redirected large amounts of aid to the Pacific since 2022, making it the second largest donor in the region, analysts say Beijing will keep looking for opportunities to influence Taiwan’s Pacific allies.
“China will be looking for opportunities to persuade these countries to adopt a relationship with Beijing in preference to one with Taiwan, and they will use a combination of carrots and sticks to achieve this goal,” Tess Newton Cain, an adjunct associate professor at Griffith Asia Institute in Australia, told VOA in a video interview.
To cope with China’s ongoing attempt to drive a wedge between Taiwan and its Pacific allies, Sora said Taipei should “consistently be present in terms of its activities on the ground and in terms of servicing the political relationship.”
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