Russia’s war on Ukraine hit the three-year mark Monday and the conflict is no more settled than it was when Moscow’s troops first stormed across the border of its neighbor.
In the earliest days of fighting, Russian President Vladimir Putin had hoped to quickly overwhelm Kyiv’s forces and capture the one-time Soviet satellite state. But Ukrainian forces, supplied with tens of billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. and European munitions, fought back over three years and now the war is at something of a deadly stalemate with any settlement of it, and on what terms, in a state of uncertainty.
By numerous accounts, hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded, along with tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians who have been killed and injured in the Russian ground and aerial attacks.
Russia controls about a fifth of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory, including the Crimean Peninsula it unilaterally seized in 2014, and lands captured by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine in the ensuing years and territory taken over by Moscow’s forces since the war started on Feb. 24, 2022. As the war rages, Russian troops are gaining even more territory.
But the political overseers who could control Ukraine’s fate have changed. Former U.S. President Joe Biden, who led the Western coalition of nations funding Ukraine’s war effort, vowed continued support for Kyiv against Russia for “as long as it takes.”
Now, the new U.S. leader is President Donald Trump, who declined last year during a political debate to say he wanted Ukraine to win the war. Last week he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator.” Trump claimed that Zelenskyy, not Putin, started the war, and laid the groundwork for a settlement of the war with Putin. Last week, the U.S. and Russia excluded Ukraine and European countries from the initial discussions, with Trump saying Zelenskyy could have negotiated with Russia three years ago to talk Putin out of invading.
On Monday, more than a dozen Western leaders attended events in Ukraine to mark the third anniversary of the war.
Trump has said he wants the carnage to end, but Ukrainian and European officials are worried that he envisions a settlement that would be more favorable to Moscow than Kyiv. He has demanded that Ukraine turn over a large portion of its rare earth minerals to the U.S. to pay for its military support over the last three years.
The Kremlin says it has no intention of yielding any of the territory it now holds while the U.S. says that Ukraine’s goal of joining NATO, the West’s key military alliance, as part of a negotiated end to the war is unrealistic.
U.S. officials say both Russia and Ukraine will have to make concessions to reach a peace deal, but the terms of any settlement are far from a conclusion.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned at a conference in Kyiv that world security is at stake depending on how the Russia-Ukraine war might end.
“The autocrats around the world are watching very carefully whether there’s any impunity if you violate international borders or invade your neighbor, or if there is true deterrence,” she said.
Some of Ukraine’s most important backers, including European leaders and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, were among the stream of dignitaries arriving by train in Kyiv. Others spoke at a conference via video link.
The officials echoed similar messages that Ukraine and its European partners must be consulted in any peace negotiations, Putin’s ambitions must be thwarted, and Europe must take on more of the burden for its own defense.
The shift in Washington’s policy toward Ukraine under Trump has touched off deep concerns in Europe, where governments fear being sidelined by the U.S. in efforts to secure a peace deal and are weighing how they might pick up the slack of any cut in U.S. aid for Ukraine.
European Council President Antonio Costa announced Sunday that he would convene an emergency summit of the 27 European Union leaders in Brussels on March 6, with Ukraine at the top of the agenda.
“We are living a defining moment for Ukraine and European security,” he said in a post on social media.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are both heading to Washington this week to meet with Trump.
Starmer said Ukrainians’ voices “must be at the heart of the drive for peace,” while Trump’s intervention had “changed the global conversation” and “created an opportunity.”
“Russia does not hold all the cards in this war,” Starmer said.
EU foreign ministers Monday approved a new array of sanctions against Russia that target Moscow’s so-called “shadow fleet” of ships that it uses to skirt restrictions on transporting oil and gas, or to carry stolen Ukrainian grain.
The EU said 74 vessels were added to its shadow fleet list.
Asset freezes and travel bans were imposed on 83 officials and “entities,” typically government agencies, banks or companies.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said his country would provide a more than $1 billion military systems package to Ukraine this year.
Coming off his victory in Sunday’s German elections, conservative leader Friedrich Merz — also a staunch backer of Ukraine — posted on X Monday: “More than ever, we must put Ukraine in a position of strength.”
“For a fair peace, the country that is under attack must be part of peace negotiations,” he wrote.
The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, insisted that the U.S. cannot seal any peace deal to end the war without Ukraine or Europe being involved. She highlighted what she said were pro-Russian positions being taken by the Trump administration.
“You can discuss whatever you want with Putin. But if it comes to Europe or Ukraine, then Ukraine and Europe also have to agree to this deal,” Kallas told reporters in Brussels.
Some material in this report came from The Associated Press.
…