WASHINGTON — South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s uncertain political future from his martial law backlash could imperil the next Trump administration’s trilateral coordination with the country and Japan in countering China, analysts say.
Yoon faces an investigation for treason after declaring martial law and rescinding it hours later last week. Although he survived an impeachment vote on Saturday, the main opposition Democratic Party said the following day it would seek an impeachment vote again.
Uncertainty surrounds Yoon’s leadership and the future leadership of South Korea amid rapidly evolving political disarray and confusion.
Key government officials have resigned over the martial law controversy, and the head of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), Han Dong-hun, said Sunday that Yoon would resign soon and would no longer be involved in conducting state affairs. In the meantime, the Defense Ministry said Monday that Yoon still had the control of the South Korean military.
The South Korean political crisis poses risks to the security of the region, where countries such as North Korea, China and Russia lie in wait to take advantage of the situation, analysts say.
“The resulting political turmoil raises uncertainty over the future direction of the country’s policies and ability to implement them,” said Bruce Klingner, the senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation.
“The incoming U.S. administration will be focused on countering the multifaceted Chinese threat to the region and urging allies and partners to assume larger roles,” he said. “Yoon’s actions will trigger doubts as to the viability of Seoul’s roles and contributions.”
“Coupled with the Japanese leadership change and loss of legislative majority by the LDP [Liberal Democratic Party], the United States now has two weakened allies in Northeast Asia,” Klingner said.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba assumed office in October. The same month, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in parliament.
On Monday, Daniel Kritenbrink, U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific affairs, met with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts to discuss regional security, underscoring the importance of maintaining close trilateral cooperation.
The trilateral ties were consolidated after Yoon extended an olive branch to then- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida after years of frayed relations between the two countries over colonial wartime issues.
The two countries’ mending of bilateral ties and their subsequent trilateral summit with the U.S. at Camp David in August 2023, viewed as historic in Washington, is frowned upon by South Korea’s main opposition party, which is considered anti-Japan and pro-China.
If the Democratic Party files another impeachment motion and manages to get two-thirds of the 300-seat National Assembly and six of nine constitutional court judges to vote in favor, the country will hold a special election to choose a new president.
If Yoon resigns or impeachment votes by the parliament and court pass, the main opposition party has a shot at the country’s next leadership.
However, how the process will unfold is uncertain as the PPP boycotted the first impeachment vote and the constitutional court has three vacancies.
Terence Roehrig, a Korea expert and professor of national security at the U.S. Naval War College, said, “If Yoon leaves office, either through impeachment or resignation, the special election that follows will undoubtedly select a Democratic Party president.”
He continued: “As a result, there is likely to be a shift in South Korean policy toward China and in maintaining trilateral ties with Japan and the United States. Much has been done in the past two years to institutionalize trilateral relations, but these efforts will be tested with Yoon’s departure along with the incoming Trump administration.”
The PPP criticized Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung for what it described as his “subservient” attitude toward China when he met with then-Chinese Ambassador to South Korea Xing Haiming in March.
Lee said at the meeting that South Korea should not be involved in the cross-strait issue involving Taiwan. China considers the independent island nation as its own sovereign territory.
Xing in 2023 accused Yoon’s government of tilting too much toward the U.S. and damaging South Korea’s relations with China.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at a press briefing in Beijing on Monday that she will “not comment on the ROK’s internal affairs,” referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.
Andrew Yeo, the SK-Korea foundation chair in Korea Studies at the Brookings Institution, said it would not be surprising for China “to hope for a DP to come back in office,” as during the previous Moon Jae-in government before Yoon, because the main opposition party is “more open to engaging China.”
Yeo said that based on President-elect Donald Trump’s key Cabinet position picks, such as Representative Mike Waltz for national security adviser and Senator Marco Rubio for secretary of state, both viewed as China hawks, countering China will be a key focus, and good ties between Seoul and Tokyo would be “desirable.”
At the same time, Trump’s preference to deal bilaterally rather than with alliances, makes the future of the trilateral ties a bit uncertain, Yeo said.
“I don’t think the Trump administration may be as active as the Biden administration was in trying to orchestrate and encourage alliances to work together,” he said.
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